Looking At The NFL Draft Like An Economist

April 24, 2009

This is a posting about an economics writer who works with one of the top economists who raises the question if the first pick in the NFL Draft is worth it. I tend to lean with the way now-Dolphins executive Bill Parcells handles things.

LAS VEGAS, NV (April 23, 2009) – The NFL Draft, coming in two days, has become a ritual for many of us. For one weekend in April, we sit by the TV or computer to see which college star will play for our favorite team.

Others, like me, see the draft as a business exercise. In other words, is there a method to making a top draft pick work? Fortunately, there are tons of guys – would you know who ESPN’s Mel Kiper is without the draft? – have done a lot of the work.

One of the more interesting articles came from economics reporter Stephen Dubner. He is the co-writer of the blog Freakonomics on the New York Times editorial page and the co-author of the book by the same name, along with Economist Steven Levitt, a professor at the University of Chicago. I highly recommend both the blog and the book.

Dubner’s piece was titled, “Is The Top NFL Pick A Penalty.” It’s a fabulous look at the drafting process and the results. Included in the piece is a dialogue with Sports Illustrated’s Peter King and a fan. King and the fan actually think the team with the number one pick can pick wherever they want. And Dubner agrees.

A No. 1 N.F.L. draft pick may be one of the most overvalued assets in our society, since he comes saddled with a mandatory signing bonus that is millions of dollars more than a late-first-round pick or an early-second-round pick. If someone wants him, go ahead and pay him. But if the poor Lions think they can do better by picking, say, tenth — well, wouldn’t that make things interesting?

I’m not in total agreement. If the organization proceeds correctly – by removing some of the bloated financial hype – then the first pick could be a solid long-lasting economic move.

Personally, I like the Parcells method which he has now employed in the Miami Dolphins brain trust. Last year the Dolphins made Offensive Tackle Jake Long, out of Michigan, the overall first pick. Usually, it’s a quarterback, running back, or wide receiver.

But Parcells went for what he needed and he made sure that Long – or whoever was going to be the top pick – was signed before Draft Day. That way there was no chance of your top player asking for top dollar and then maybe holding out if he didn’t get it. A long holdout for a rookie usually means a wasted first season for the player and the team.

My bet is this: Parcells told Long, and anyone else who was considered to be the top pick, “If you don’t take our deal, we’ll move onto the next person and make them the top pick.”

Long proved to be a good pick for the Dolphins. In retrospect, though, there might have been a better move for the Dolphins – at least in the long run. Don’t you think Miami fans would have loved to have had Matt Ryan, the Boston College QB, who took the Falcons to the playoffs last season, and could again for the next ten years?

It looks like the Lions will pick first – not tenth – and they will choose Georgia’s Matt Stafford. Your choice?

 

http://freakonomics.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/04/22/is-the-top-nfl-draft-pick-a-penalty/

Written by John Daly Sports · Filed Under College Football, NFL, NFL Draft 

Comments

One Response to “Looking At The NFL Draft Like An Economist”

  1. Kylie Batt on April 11th, 2010 5:53 pm

    Это отличная идея…

    Дизайнер / Специалист по допечатной подготовке / Препресс специалист LAS VEGAS, NV (April 23, 2009) – The NFL Draft, coming in […….

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