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Looking At The NFL Draft Like An Economist

This is a posting about an economics writer who works with one of the top economists who raises the question if the first pick in the NFL Draft is worth it. I tend to lean with the way now-Dolphins executive Bill Parcells handles things.

LAS VEGAS, NV (April 23, 2009) – The NFL Draft, coming in two days, has become a ritual for many of us. For one weekend in April, we sit by the TV or computer to see which college star will play for our favorite team.

Others, like me, see the draft as a business exercise. In other words, is there a method to making a top draft pick work? Fortunately, there are tons of guys – would you know who ESPN’s Mel Kiper is without the draft? – have done a lot of the work.

One of the more interesting articles came from economics reporter Stephen Dubner. He is the co-writer of the blog Freakonomics on the New York Times editorial page and the co-author of the book by the same name, along with Economist Steven Levitt, a professor at the University of Chicago. I highly recommend both the blog and the book.

Dubner’s piece was titled, “Is The Top NFL Pick A Penalty.” It’s a fabulous look at the drafting process and the results. Included in the piece is a dialogue with Sports Illustrated’s Peter King and a fan. King and the fan actually think the team with the number one pick can pick wherever they want. And Dubner agrees.

A No. 1 N.F.L. draft pick may be one of the most overvalued assets in our society, since he comes saddled with a mandatory signing bonus that is millions of dollars more than a late-first-round pick or an early-second-round pick. If someone wants him, go ahead and pay him. But if the poor Lions think they can do better by picking, say, tenth — well, wouldn’t that make things interesting?

I’m not in total agreement. If the organization proceeds correctly – by removing some of the bloated financial hype – then the first pick could be a solid long-lasting economic move.

Personally, I like the Parcells method which he has now employed in the Miami Dolphins brain trust. Last year the Dolphins made Offensive Tackle Jake Long, out of Michigan, the overall first pick. Usually, it’s a quarterback, running back, or wide receiver.

But Parcells went for what he needed and he made sure that Long – or whoever was going to be the top pick – was signed before Draft Day. That way there was no chance of your top player asking for top dollar and then maybe holding out if he didn’t get it. A long holdout for a rookie usually means a wasted first season for the player and the team.

My bet is this: Parcells told Long, and anyone else who was considered to be the top pick, “If you don’t take our deal, we’ll move onto the next person and make them the top pick.”

Long proved to be a good pick for the Dolphins. In retrospect, though, there might have been a better move for the Dolphins – at least in the long run. Don’t you think Miami fans would have loved to have had Matt Ryan, the Boston College QB, who took the Falcons to the playoffs last season, and could again for the next ten years?

It looks like the Lions will pick first – not tenth – and they will choose Georgia’s Matt Stafford. Your choice?

 

http://freakonomics.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/04/22/is-the-top-nfl-draft-pick-a-penalty/

Two Of The Best Baseball Books

Since it’s Jackie Robinson Day in Major League Baseball and MLB-TV is talking about the day’s theme, there are two books that kep popping into my head.  I highly recommend them.  The first is 1947: When All Hell Broke Loose In Baseball by Red Barber.   Barber was the voice of the Dodgers so he saw it and lived it.  The other book is by the late, great David Halberstam; The Summer of ‘49.  This is truly a baseball book, but it’s also a history book of America seen through the eyes of baseball.  You’ll notice a number of references from that book in future columns here. 

Baseball Explains Our Changing Economy

Baseball is more than a game.  It’s a metaphor for America.  I use this theme a lot.  Along with two great films, I use baseball to explain what is happening in this changing economy over at JohnDalyLive.  Give me your thoughts here or there.

UNC-Kentucky Classic

Now that Madness is done, do you still miss good college basketball? You can still see some great hoops — for free — and commercial free. Check out TV4U. The featured game is Number 1 UNC against Number 2 Kentucky in December, 1981 – three months before the Tarheels won the 1982 national championship against Georgetown. There are some big names – Sam Perkins, James Worthy, and a freshmen guard “Mike Jordan.” Some of you will remember the Kentucky star Dirk Minniefield and oft-injured Sam Bowie, drafted before that Mike Jordan guy in the NBA draft two years later. But the best aspect of the game: the color analyst is the late, great Al McGuire.

NCAA Title Game Pick

Here it is.  After a horrible weekend, we going with …

Michigan St. +7.5

2009 Baseball Picks: Join in

These are my picks for the season. I usually do this with three other long-time friends — Ken Hyne, Jason Hyne, and Tom Prior. They will post their picks as well in the comment section. Feel free to do the same. As you can see I’ve led with my heart by choosing the Red Sox to win it all; my head tells me the bullpen is the key. I also think the Rays will be like past World Series losers and not make the playoffs the following year. Since Manny has a two year deal, he will be fine this year to go along with a great line-up under Joe Torre. Dodgers-Red Sox would be a class World Series. So here are my picks.

 

WORLD SERIES CHAMP: Boston Red Sox

AL CHAMP: Boston Red Sox

NL CHAMP: Los Angeles Dodgers

AL EAST: New York Yankees

AL CENTRAL: Cleveland Indians

AL WEST: Oakland A’s

AL WILDCARD: Boston Red Sox

NL EAST: NY Mets

NL CENTRAL: St. Louis Cardinals

NL WEST: Los Angeles Dodgers

NL WILDCARD: San Francisco Giants

AL MVP: Josh Hamilton

AL CY YOUNG: Roy Halladay

NL MVP: Albert Pujols

NL CY YOUNG: Brandon Webb

March Madness Final Four Picks

This is a posting about the Daly Combine’s semi-final picks. We’re 24 and 18 so far – with the spreads.

LAS VEGAS, NV (April 3, 2009) – Here they are.

Villanova +7.5

UConn -4.5.

Mixing A Little Sports and Politics

This is a posting on JohnDalyLive about an email I received.  It ’s a parody that says the Pittsburgh Steelers must give up 3 of their six Super Bowl Trophies by White House decree.  It shows that certain sports fans know so little about sports and politics.

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